Esports fans want to predict tournament results but states (and Faker) are fighting it

This week, as ever, there were more developments in the legal battles against prediction markets. But data released from Riot Games and GRID suggest they are fighting a losing battle. Fans want to predict the outcome of events and will undoubtedly find a way to do just that. 

More than 1.7 million players engaged with Crystal Ball and Pick ‘Ems during the recent MSI, according to data released by GRID and Riot. 

The tournament marked the first time Riot used GRID’s official live esports data to power Crystal Ball. 

“At Riot, esports fans have always been at the center of what we do,” said Doug Watson, Head of Business Strategy for Global Esports at Riot Games in a press release. 

“Crystal Ball is a great example of what’s possible when you listen to the community and apply official data where fans are already engaged. The same data that has been used across integrity, broadcast innovation, and more, is now enhancing the experience for LoL fans in real time.”

Engagement with Crystal Ball demonstrates how predicting event outcomes can keep fans interested. 

“I spend way more time invested in the tournament than usual because of Crystal Ball,” wrote one Reddit user. “I’m watching every single match, tracking stats, hoping my picks are right, competing with my friends and trying to win the jackpot — every single ultimate skin in the game. It makes every game matter to me even when my favorite team is already out.”

The same can apply to using prediction markets or gambling sites. The rise in popularity of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has given fans more ways to have “skin in the game.”

GRID also partnered with Polymarket last month. On the deal, Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket, stated: “Esports moves fast, and so should the markets built on it. GRID gives our users official data with lower latency and access to live streams in real time, all in one place. It’s a better, differentiated experience for traders and a bigger opportunity for the sport.” 

Kalshi has also ramped up its esports offerings, which are attracting growing trading volumes. Data from June showed CS2 dominates the markets, followed by League of Legends. 

Fans are showing they want to predict events, be that through Crystal Ball, wagering on prediction markets, or betting at sportsbooks. 

However, depending on the state you reside in, your opportunities to do so vary widely. Prediction markets had opened up nationwide, but the free market could be short-lived. It’s moving towards this rapidly.

Washington state appears poised to follow Nevada and Michigan in successfully banning Kalshi. The state issued a preliminary injunction against the company on Monday and could enforce a ban as soon as next month. Washington does not offer legal online esports betting, except if you are physically at one of the state’s licensed casinos. 

Esports betting is targeted for a wide range of reasons, but sometimes it comes down to a misunderstanding of gaming and its components by the older generation.

The argument against prediction markets is that they encourage younger users to effectively gamble. Most states set the legal gambling age at 21, but prediction markets allow 18-year-olds to “trade.”

Loot boxes in games have also been accused of sending gamers down the slippery path to becoming gambling addicts. 

A study released in Canada this week showed that users who purchase the random rewards are more likely to have all sorts of problems, including gambling addictions, mental health problems, and other compulsive behaviors. 

Fighting against the spread of online gambling in esports, LoL legend Faker announced that he was becoming an honorary member of the Korean police. 

The six-time world champion said he “will actively take part in ambassador activities, including widely publicizing to teenagers the dangers of online gambling.”

Gambling is heavily restricted in Korea, but estimates show the black market is worth over $80 billion. With esports immensely popular, the segment could be a large contributor to that figure. Police have shut down gaming cafes that offered teenagers the chance to bet on esports and other events. 

The police are hopeful that Faker’s presence will help clamp down on the illegal industry and “give courage to teenagers in need to report” anyone engaging in the activity “without hesitation”. 

Police said the fight against online gambling is “continuous,” as states in the US battling prediction markets can empathize with that.