Switch 2 Could Fail To Sell As Well As OG Switch, Says Analyst

As one analyst predicts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will see a price increase this year, another analyst suggests that the Mario maker’s Switch successor may not maintain the same sales figures as its predecessor.

IGN reported an in-depth story about the Switch 2’s holiday season, speaking to several analysts around the world to understand whether it really had a bad holiday. The short answer? Not really, as declining sales are expected for a console with a somewhat established base. The long answer? Kind of, particularly because the Switch 2 didn’t have a big blockbuster exclusive to bolster sales going into the holiday season. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond is good–as evidenced by GameSpot’s 8/10 review–but it’s not a Mario or a Zelda, so the name cache wasn’t there to elicit fervent purchasing during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Ampere Analysis’ games industry analyst and researcher, Piers Harding-Rolls, told IGN that it’s for this reason–alongside the predictable success of the Switch due to environmental conditions–that the Switch 2 wouldn’t sell as well as the Switch did.

“When the original Switch launched, it followed a failing Wii U generation–there was a lot of interest, but hype and momentum built up in the run-up to the holiday sales at the end of 2017,” Harding-Rolls said. “This time around at the Switch 2 launch, demand was predictably high because of the success of the Switch. Following a record launch, it’s not surprising that Switch 2 sales have not been able to maintain the same massive sales lead [as] the original Switch. For the record, Switch 2 shipments in 2025 should outperform the original Switch in 2017 and over a shorter period of time. Then there is the whole macroeconomic situation, less disposable income, and higher-priced hardware. This may be softening demand to an extent, especially as lots of new games are still available on the original Switch.”

Citing the COVID-19 pandemic as a unique driver of Switch sales (especially since everyone sheltered in place and, predictably, could play more games), as well as the middle class’s shrinking income in the wake of tariffs and rising household costs, Harding-Rolls said it’s understandable that the Switch 2 wouldn’t outperform the Switch in terms of initial and holiday sales. That said, Harding-Rolls believes that 2026 will be better for the console, particularly as more exclusives come out.

“I’m expecting Switch 2 exclusives to become more plentiful in 2026, so this will drive upgrades for those sitting on the fence,” Harding-Rolls said. “Overall, Switch 2 games look pretty strong in 2026, so I remain quite bullish on the performance of the platform this year.”

Despite this, all the analysts IGN spoke to–Harding-Rolls included–agree that the Switch 2 could eventually reach or even surpass the Switch’s sales in the same time period, particularly because the Switch launched in March 2017 and the Switch 2 launched in June 2025. That three-month window makes a difference in sales, the analysts believe. However, the Trump administration’s tariff war will be the real weight impacting the Switch 2’s sales, as the potential cost increase could come in the form of a more expensive console, hiked game prices, rising peripheral costs, or increased subscription prices.

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